Online Betting Industry: Predictions and Stats

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Understanding the mathematics behind odds and gambling might help you decide whether a bet in online betting is worthwhile. There are three main ways to express odds: fractionally, decimally, and in American format (Moneyline).

In addition to their usage by bookies, the different classes indicate distinct ways of presenting probability. The choice to gamble or wager may be taken after the implied likelihood of a result has been determined.

Implied Probabilities from Odds

When you decide to delve into the vast world of online sports betting, most of your learning can be done on new betting sites, which makes this endeavor easier.

You’ll find that once you learn the three different kinds of odds and how to translate the statistics into implied probabilities, the notion of odds becomes clearer, even if the mathematics involved appears daunting at first.

  • Sometimes referred to be British odds or conventional odds, fractional odds are written as a fraction, such as 6/1, or represented as a ratio, such as six-to-one.
  • The decimal odds show the amount gained for each dollar staked. For example, if the chances are 3.00 that a certain horse would win, the reward for every $100 placed is $300.
  • American odds are frequently referred to as Moneyline odds and thus are accompanied by a plus (+) or minus (-) sign, with the plus sign allocated to the occurrence with the lower chance and larger payoff.

Why Is the House Always the Winner?

Never do the numbers on the board represent the actual likelihood of an occurrence (or not occurring). The payoff to the winning gambler is always less than what it would have been if the odds were more accurately reflective of the genuine chances since the bookmaker always adds a profit margin to these odds.

In order to ensure a profit for themselves regardless of the result of an event, bookmakers need to accurately predict those outcomes’ probabilities. To illustrate this point, consider the 2015 ICC Cricket World Cup and the estimated odds for each possible event.

  • Odds for Australia are -250 (with a 71.43% chance indicated).
  • (+200) New Zealand (implied likelihood = 33.33%)

The sum of this probability is 104.76 percent (71.43 percent plus 33.33 percent). Doesn’t it go against how all probabilities should add up to 100%? This is due to the fact that the odds being offered are not accurate.

The bookie’s “over-round,” or the amount over 100%, assuming bets are accepted in the correct proportion, is 4.76%. There is a risk of $104.76 to win $100 if you wager on both teams.

From the bookmaker’s standpoint, regardless of whether the side wins, they will collect $104.76 and pay out $100 (including the bet). This gives them an estimated profit of 4.5% (4.76/104.76). In most online betting situations, the bookmaker will have a little advantage.

A study in the Journal of Gambling Studies found that, for inexperienced players, in particular, the more hands they won, the less money they took home.

This is due to the fact that stringing together a series of victories will likely only get you a few dollars in stakes before you need to up your game, and that if you do so, you will inevitably have to face the hit of infrequent and large losses. The field of behavioral economics applies here.

Either the player’s winning streak is compelling him or her to keep playing, or the player expects that a major victory would ultimately outweigh the losses. The emotional high of a victory, rather than logical or statistical considerations, is what keeps them playing in both circumstances.

Online Betting Industry

Think about a casino. Every aspect of the game and atmosphere is arranged to benefit the home, from the rules to the music to the lighting to the booze to the furniture. Keep playing because the house really wants you to.

All casino games include a house edge in their design, although the size of that edge varies depending on the specific game.

People also tend to overestimate the volatility of payouts when they’re on a winning run, failing to account for the reality that frequent moderate profits are ultimately negated by losses that are, on average, less frequent and higher in magnitude. This is especially true for Paul Posluszny, who mentioned his probable immense loss of millions on NIL contracts in an interview.

Bottom Line

If the probability that is determined for a certain event is greater than the indicated probability that is predicted by the bookmaker, then the online betting opportunity in question should be regarded as worthwhile. In addition, the chances that are never shown accurately represent the exact possibility that an event will take place (or not occur).

If the odds had accurately represented the possibilities of winning, the payment for a victory would have been far higher. However, this is never the case. The fact that the bookmaker’s profitability is included in the odds is the primary reason why the “house” always emerges victorious.

Another good note is players should also look into a sportsbook’s marketing tactics, as their promotional offers can be rather profitable, offering free bet credits and more.

Dragan Sutevski

Posted by Dragan Sutevski

Dragan Sutevski is a founder and CEO of Sutevski Consulting, creating business excellence through innovative thinking. Get more from Dragan on Twitter. Contact Dragan